LONDON (Reuters) - British manufacturing output fell in January at the fastest pace since June, wiping out the previous month's gains and reinforcing fears that the economy made a weak start to the year.
Separate ONS data showed a rare improvement in Britain's trade position, driven by the biggest monthly drop in oil imports since 2008.
ANALYSTS' VIEWS
JAMES KNIGHTLEY, UK ECONOMIST, ING
"With the February PMI manufacturing index coming in so weak and with orders numbers also disappointing it looks as though this sector is going to be a major drag on growth in the first quarter of 2013.
"We have already has poor construction numbers for the start of the quarter so the prospect of yet another return to technical recession is very real.
"This will intensify the pressure on the BoE to do more to help support the economy, given government officials suggest they have no intention of letting up on austerity.
"As a result more QE remains probable with sterling very much biased to the downside.
"Admittedly the trade balance has improved, but this is more to do with weakness in imports than a pick-up in exports. As such it underlines the weak domestic demand story in the UK."
PHILIP SHAW, UK ECONOMIST, INVESTEC
"The manufacturing figures are appalling. They represent a very poor start to 2013 for the factory sector. This may be a snow story once again, but one should be wary about putting too much of the blame onto weather conditions.
"Our view is that the UK will probably avoid a triple-dip recession but these figures hardly inspire confidence in that view.
"The softness of the numbers, irrespective of special events really puts the pressure on the Chancellor to deliver some sort of stimulus to the economy.
"Clearly on the fiscal side, there is no room to relax policy, either by cutting taxes or raising spending. What he seems likely to do would be to give the Monetary Policy Committee more licence to be aggressive on policy as suggested by newspaper headlines last week. And there remains the question of trying to channel credit to SMEs."
MIKE RIGBY, HEAD OF MANUFACTURING, BARCLAYS
"After a positive end to last year, January's figures show that the outlook remains difficult with uncertainty set for the medium-term. Manufacturing has long been seen as a precursor for the UK economy, and therefore it's no surprise that current activity mirrors the challenging economic environment. The sector is keen to see if there will be any additional support in the Budget next week."
DAVID TINSLEY, UK ECONOMIST, BNP PARIBAS:
"They are extremely disappointing manufacturing production numbers. Perhaps the story is not the weather behind the overall picture and it's not just down to oil output that has led to distortions in the data over the last six months or so. Basically it's a very bad start to January and therefore the first quarter. Unless the service sector delivers solid growth, we are likely to see a contraction in the first quarter."
(Reporting by UK economics team)
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